Rainfall likely to be 107% of LPA over North-West India, 103% of LPA over Central India, 102% of LPA over South Peninsula and 96% of LPA over North-East India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued the second stage of Long Range Forecast Update for the 2020 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) had issued the first stage operational long-range forecasts for the southwest monsoon season (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole on 15th April. Now, IMD has prepared the updated forecast.



Quantitatively, the 2020 monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 102% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of 4%. The Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.

In addition, forecasts for the monthly rainfall for July & August over the country as a whole, and forecast for the seasonal rainfall for the 4 broad geographical regions of India (NW India, NE India, Central India and South Peninsula) are also presented. The operational forecasts have been prepared based on the state-of-the-art, indigenously developed statistical models.

The latest experimental forecast based on the MMCFS suggests that there is high probability for the 2020 monsoon season (June to September) rainfall to be above normal to excess (More than 104 % of LPA). Quantitatively, the 2020 monsoon rainfall is likely to be 107% of LPA with a model error of 4%.

The probability forecasts suggest a very low probability (only 5%) for monsoon rainfall to be deficient. On the other hand, it suggests a very high probability for monsoon rainfall to be normal (41%).

The 2020 monsoon season (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 107% of LPA over North-West India, 103% of LPA over Central India, 102% of LPA over South Peninsula, and 96% of LPA over North-East India, all with a model error of 8 %. Thus, monsoon rainfall is expected to be spatially well distributed.

The rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 103% of its LPA during July and 97% of LPA during August, both with a model error of 9 %.

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